Geoeconomic and trade dynamics between Bolivia and the United States
Authors
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Rodrigo Burgoa Terceros
Universidad Católica Boliviana “San Pablo”
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8595-9349
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Amanda Alurralde Mariën
Unión Europea
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7236-2744
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Abstract
This study examines the economic and political impacts of the recent tariff increase imposed by the United States on key Bolivian export products—tin, Brazil nuts, and quinoa—through an interdisciplinary lens grounded in geoeconomics. Acknowledging the interaction between trade policies and geopolitical strategies, the analysis moves beyond purely economic explanations to frame trade as an instrument of state power. Using monthly data for the period 2000–2025, a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model is estimated to assess the short- and long-term effects of tariffs, the real exchange rate, international prices, and U.S. industrial production on Bolivia’s export flows. The findings reveal that U.S. tariffs, driven by the protectionist agenda of the Trump administration, not only modify market access conditions but also function as political pressure mechanisms, reshaping global power dynamics. Bolivia’s high export concentration and persistently strained diplomatic relations with the United States amplify its vulnerability to such external shocks. Moreover, the effects vary by product, revealing heterogeneous elasticities and different degrees of integration into global value chains. By combining econometric modeling with a critical political and geoeconomic perspective, this study provides a deeper understanding of trade as a tool of strategic influence and offers valuable insights for the formulation of public policies and diplomatic–commercial strategies aimed at strengthening Bolivia’s economic autonomy within an increasingly competitive and conflict-prone global environment.
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