Autócratas nucleares. Estrategias y trayectorias de supervivencia política
Autores
-
César Niño
Universidad de La Salle
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1417-6643
-
Manuel Camilo González
Universidad Sergio Arboleda
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9032-8717
Resumo
En el presente artículo se afirma que la tenencia de armas nucleares en los regímenes autoritarios puede convertirse en garantía para la sobrevivencia política de los líderes y su élite. Con base en el análisis de rastreo de procesos de cuatro casos de estudios representativos (Corea del Norte, Irak, Irán y Libia), este articulo expone que los programas nucleares configuran dispositivos en los que el cambio de régimen se entiende como una amenaza a la seguridad. Estos han sido exitosos cuando los regímenes autoritarios han transformado sus recursos en armas nucleares o cuando han acumulado capacidades que generan una percepción de riesgo frente a los actores que buscan la democratización.Palavras-chave:
Regímenes autoritarios, armas nucleares, proliferación nuclear, seguridad, cambio de régimenReferências
Aradau, C., Huysmans, J., Neal, A. & Voelkner, N. (eds.) (2014). Critical security methods: new frameworks for analysis. (1.a ed., Vol. 1). Routledge.
Beach, D. & Pedersen, R. (2012). Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Bennett, A. & Checkel, J.T. (2015). Process tracing. En A. Bennett & J. T. Checkel (Eds.), Process Tracing. From Methapor to Analytical Tool (pp. 3-38). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Blair, R.; Karim, S. & Morse, B. (2018). Establishing the Rule of Law in Weak and War-Torn States: Evidence from a Field Experiment with the Liberian National Police. MIT Political Science Department Research Paper, 2018(8). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095944
Blaney, D.L. & Tickner, A.B. (2017). Worlding, Ontological Politics and the Possibility of a Decolonial IR. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 45(3), 293-311. https://doi.org/10.1177/0305829817702446
Bowen, W. Q.; Moran, M. & Esfandiary, D. (2016). Living on the Edge. Iran and the Practice of Nuclear Hedging. London: Springer.
Braut-Hegghammer, M. (2016). Unclear Physics: Why Iraq and Libya failed to build nuclear weapons. Cornell University Press.
Braut-Hegghammer, M. (2017). Giving Up on the Bomb: Revisiting Libya’s Decision to Dismantle its Nuclear Program. Wilson Center. Recuperado de https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogpost/giving-the-bomb-revisiting-libyas-decision-to-dismantle-its-nuclear-program
Bueno de Mesquita, B. & Lalman, D. (1992). War and reason. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Byman, D. & Lind, J. (2010). Pyongyang’s survival strategy: tools of authoritarian control in North Korea. International Security, 35(1), 44-74.
Cebul, M.D. (2013). Atomic Autocrats: Authoritarian Regime Type and the Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons.
Cha, V.D. (2009). What do they really want?: Obama’s North Korea conundrum. The Washington Quarterly, 32(4), 119-138.
Chehabi, H.E. (2001). The political regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran in comparative perspective. Government and Opposition, 36(1), 48-70.
Collins, J.M. & Kingston, R.C. (2002). Military strategy: Principles, practices, and historical perspectives. Potomac Books, Inc.
Debs, A. & Monteiro, N.P. (2017). Nuclear Politics: the strategic causes of proliferation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Eriksson, J. & Giacomello, G. (2006). The Information Revolution, Security, and International Relations: (IR) relevant Theory? International Political Science Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512106064462
Geddes, B.; Wright, J.G., Wright, J. & Frantz, E. (2018). How dictatorships work: Power, personalization, and collapse. Cambridge University Press.
Geleskul, E. (2009). The history of the Libyan Nuclear Program: The reasons for failure. Security Index: A Russian Journal on International Security, 15(2), 139-145.
Helmreich, J.E. (2014). Gathering rare ores: The diplomacy of uranium acquisition, 1943-1954. Princeton University Press.
Hymans, J.E. (2012). Achieving nuclear ambitions: scientists, politicians, and proliferation. Cambridge University Press.
Jentleson, B.W. & Whytock, C.A. (2006). Who “won” Libya? The force-diplomacy debate and its implications for theory and policy. International Security, 30(3), 47-86.
Jo, D.J. & Gartzke, E. (2007). Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51(1), 167-194.
Kahl, C.H. (1998). Constructing a separate peace: Constructivism, collective liberal identity, and democratic peace. Agricultural History Review. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419808429376
Kibaroglu, M. (2006). Good for the shah, banned for the mullahs: The west and Iran’s quest for nuclear power. The Middle East Journal, 60(2), 207-232.
Kincade, W.H. (1995). Nuclear proliferation: Diminishing threat. Air Force Academy, Inst. for National Security Studies, CO (United States). Koch, A. & Wolf, J. (1998). Iran’s nuclear facilities: a profile. Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Kolodziej, E.A. (2005). Security and international relations. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614903
Levite, A.E. (2003). Never say never again: nuclear reversal revisited. International Security, 27(3), 59-88.
MacCalman, M. (2016). AQ Khan nuclear smuggling network. Journal of Strategic Security, 9(1), 104-118.
Mahoney, J. (2007). Qualitative methodology and comparative politics. Comparative political studies, 40(2), 122-144.
Mansourov, A.Y. (1995). The origins, evolution, and current politics of the North Korean nuclear program. The Nonproliferation Review, 2(3), 25-38.
Mearsheimer, J.J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. WW Norton & Company.
Monteiro, N.P. & Debs, A. (2014). The strategic logic of nuclear proliferation. International Security, 39(2), 7-51.
Morgenthau, H. (1949). Politics among nations the struggle for power and peace. Detroit: Alfred Knopf.
Mousavian, S.H. & Mousavian, M.M. (2018). Building on the Iran nuclear deal for international peace and security. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 1(1), 169-192.
Narang, V. (2017). Strategies of nuclear proliferation: How states pursue the bomb. International Security, 41(3), 110-150.
Niblock, T. (1993). International and domestic factors in the economic liberalization process in Arab countries. En T. Niblock & E. Murphy (Eds.), Economic and political liberalization in the Middle East (pp. 55-87). London: British Academic Press.
Ogilvie-White, T. (1996). Is there a theory of nuclear proliferation? An analysis of the contemporary debate. The Nonproliferation Review, 4(1), 43-60.
Oneal, J.R. & Russett, B. (2001). Clear and clean: The fixed effects of the liberal peace. International Organization, 469-485.
Persbo, A. (2019). Latent Nuclear Power, Hedging, and Irreversibility. En J.S. Pilat (Ed.), Nuclear Latency and Hedging: Concepts, History, and Issues (pp. 43-70). Washington, D.C.: Wilson Center/ NPIHP.
Puga Álvarez, V. (2019). Desarmar al ‘bárbaro’: Occidente y la cruzada contra la proliferación nuclear en Oriente Medio. Relaciones Internacionales, 42, 197-217.
Rakel, E.P. (2009). The Political Elite in the Islamic Republic of Iran: From Khomeini to Ahmadinejad. Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 29(1), 105-125.
Reus-Smit, C. & Snidal, D. (2011). Overview of International Relations: Between Utopia and Reality. Oxford Handbook of International Relations. London: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199604456.013.0032
Rezaei, F. (2017). Nuclear Proliferation and Rollback: The Complex Case of Iran. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 29(4), 613-632.
Ripsman, N.M.; Taliaferro, J.W. & Lobell, S.E. (2016). Neoclassical realist theory of international politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy. World politics, 51(1), 144-172.
Rublee, M.R. (2009). Nonproliferation norms: Why states choose nuclear restraint. University of Georgia Press.
Russett, B.; Layne, C.; Spiro, D.E. & Doyle, M.W. (1995). The democratic peace. International Security, 19(4), 164-184.
Sagan, S.D. (1996). Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb. International Security, 21(3), 54-86.
Singh, S. & Way, C.R. (2004). The correlates of nuclear proliferation: A quantitative test. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(6), 859-885.
Smith, D.D. (2006). Deterring America: Rogue States and the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Cambridge University Press.
Solingen, E. (2009). Nuclear logics: contrasting paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Vol. 115). Princeton University Press.
Spykman, N. (1942). America’s strategy in world politics: The United States and the balance of power (1.a ed.). Nueva York: Transaction Publishers.
Tabatabai, A M. & Samuel, A.T. (2017). What the Iran-Iraq war tells us about the future of the Iran nuclear deal. International Security, 42(1), 152-185.
Taha, H. (2021). Nuclear Revival in North Africa? Developments in Algeria, Libya and Egypt (Occasional paper No. 332). South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA).
Tannenwald, N. (1999). The nuclear taboo: The United States and the normative basis of nuclear non-use. International organization, 53(3), 433-468.
Waltz, K.N. (1990). Nuclear myths and political realities. The American Political Science Review, 731-745.
Waltz, K.N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Waveland Press.
Way, C. & Sasikumar, K. (2004). Leaders and laggards: When and why do countries sign the NPT. Montreal: Research Group in International Security (REGIS) Working Paper.
Way, C. & Weeks, J.L. (2014). Making it personal: regime type and nuclear proliferation. American Journal of Political Science, 58(3), 705-719.
Wilkinson, P. (2001). Terrorism versus democracy : the liberal state response. London: Frank Cass.
Williams, M.C. (2003). Words, images, enemies: Securitization and international politics. International Studies Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0020-8833.2003.00277.x
Twitter